LAGOS, June 21, 2025 — Nigerians may soon face another sharp increase in the price of petrol following the decision by Dangote Petroleum Refinery to raise its ex-depot price for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to ₦880 per litre. The move, confirmed via pricing data from petroleumprice.ng and a verified Pro Forma Invoice obtained by The PUNCH, marks a ₦55 jump from the previous ₦825 rate.

The hike is expected to ripple through the downstream oil sector, with petrol pump prices projected to rise above ₦900 per litre in several parts of the country—particularly in regions farther from major distribution centres.

The increase comes amid a contradictory backdrop in the global oil market, where crude prices have been falling. On Friday, Brent crude dropped by 3.02% to $76.47 per barrel, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dipped to $74.93, and Murban fell to $76.97. However, analysts say falling benchmarks offer little reprieve locally due to a volatile exchange rate and growing operational costs.

Despite the refinery’s 650,000-barrel daily capacity, Dangote Petroleum has increasingly relied on imported crude from the United States, owing to continued domestic supply shortfalls. On Thursday, Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, disclosed that U.S. crude imports have become a major stopgap as the refinery navigates allocation issues under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude exchange program.

According to internal documents reviewed by The PUNCH, the refinery is expected to import a total of 17.65 million barrels of crude between April and July 2025. About 3.65 million barrels have already been delivered in the past two months alone.

The new pricing structure has triggered concern among stakeholders and labour unions. On Monday, the president of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), Festus Osifo, accused petroleum marketers of exploiting Nigerians by inflating pump prices. He argued that with current global crude prices, PMS should retail at no more than ₦750 per litre.

“If you check the PLATTS benchmark and convert per cubic metre to litres in Naira, petrol should cost between ₦700 and ₦750,” Osifo said. “If Nigerians suffer during high oil prices, they should also benefit when prices fall.”

Depot owners and fuel distributors in Lagos and other commercial hubs are already bracing for price realignment. Several marketers withheld pricing decisions earlier in the week after the refinery briefly paused sales and held back fresh PFIs (Pro Forma Invoices), a move that sparked speculation and opportunistic pricing across various depots.

As fuel importation remains the dominant model and local production capacity struggles to stabilise, the downstream sector remains exposed to global volatility and foreign exchange shocks. For ordinary Nigerians, the implication is clear: another surge in pump prices is on the horizon, with little relief in sight.